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ETFs signal
TZA

TZA

Direxion Daily Small Cap Bear 3X Shares

ETFsPCXUSD-100.0% from ATH
Current Price

$4.17

Drawdown from ATH

-100.0%

Last Updated

Jun 17, 2026

Dipsern Grade90d

C

Marginal

Graded against TZA's own history at this drawdown — not the market's.

What it means: TZA's own history does not strongly favor buying at this level yet.

What to do: Consider watching and waiting for a deeper dip or a higher grade.

Median 90-Day Return
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Historical Win Rate
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Last 30 days-11.46%
May 5Jun 16
About TZA

Direxion Daily Small Cap Bear 3X Shares

The fund invests at least 80% of its net assets in financial instruments, including swap agreements, futures contracts, or short positions, that, in combination, provide 3X daily inverse or short exposure to the index or to ETFs that track the index, consistent with the fund’s investment objective. The index measures the performance of approximately 2,000 small-cap companies in the Russell 3000® Index, based on a combination of their market capitalization and current index membership. It is non-

The reading

How Dipsern reads TZA right now.

Three plain-English paragraphs — current state, historical base rate, and interpretation — so you walk away with context, not a dashboard.

Snapshot

How is TZA doing right now?

In plain terms: TZA is 100% below its highest-ever price. Dipsern checks every past time it was this far down and grades how the next 90 days usually went.

TZA (Direxion Daily Small Cap Bear 3X Shares) is 100.0% below its historical peak. Tape reads in a historic crash, with the last trade at $4.17. Historic crashes (60%+ drawdowns) are rare events. For some assets they marked generational entries; for others they were warning signs of permanent capital loss.

Historical base rate

What history says at this drawdown

History at this drawdown level is well-populated for TZA — 3975 confirmed observations in the 100%-to-95% band. The Dipsern engine uses these to compute a rolling median rather than a mean, because medians are robust to the kind of fat tails you find in etfs return distributions. The win rate (% of episodes that closed positive after 90 days) is shown in the segments table below.

Interpretation

What this means for TZA

For broad-index ETFs the historical base rate is exceptionally stable; for narrow thematic ETFs (e.g., ARKK, cannabis, leveraged), drawdowns are deeper and the sample size at each band is smaller. Crash-level drawdowns are tail events with few historical analogs. The signal should be read as "here's what happened the last few times" rather than a base-rate forecast.

Read how Dipsern grades signals
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Historical depth

Sample sizes by drawdown band

Dipsern segments the full drawdown range into 20 equal-width bands. The table shows the number of confirmed historical observations in each band for TZA. Median forward returns, win rates, and prediction errors are available in the full analysis.

Drawdown BandObservationsMedian ReturnWin Rate
-100% to -95%Current3975
-95% to -90%181
-90% to -85%43
-85% to -80%41
-80% to -75%16
-75% to -70%8
-70% to -65%12
-65% to -60%23
-60% to -55%21
-55% to -50%11
-50% to -45%7
-45% to -40%5
Methodology

Every grade is reproducible.

We segment 40+ years of TZA's price history into 20 equal-width drawdown bands and compute forward median returns, win rates, and prediction error per band. No look-ahead bias. Pure NumPy. Open math, gated numbers.

Read the methodologyBrowse the API

Years of history

40+

Drawdown bands

20

Look-ahead bias

None

Data sources

4

Unlock TZA's full analysis

See the Dipsern grade, median returns, win rates, prediction accuracy, 8 interactive charts, historical price paths, and a plain-English verdict for TZA.

Dipsern is research and a second opinion — not a broker. You'd buy TZA at your own broker.

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Signal computed Jun 17, 2026 using default parameters (90-day return period, 20 segments, 0.95 decay). Data sourced from Yahoo Finance, Binance, CoinGecko, and Steam Market.