United States Natural Gas Fund, LP
$11.76
-99.9%
Jun 17, 2026
C
MarginalGraded against UNG's own history at this drawdown — not the market's.
What it means: UNG's own history does not strongly favor buying at this level yet.
What to do: Consider watching and waiting for a deeper dip or a higher grade.
The fund invests primarily in futures contracts for natural gas that are traded on the NYMEX, ICE Futures Europe and ICE Futures U.S. (together, “ICE Futures”) or other U.S. and foreign exchanges. The Benchmark Futures Contract is the futures contract on natural gas as traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange that is the near month contract to expire, except when the near month contract is within two weeks of expiration.
Three plain-English paragraphs — current state, historical base rate, and interpretation — so you walk away with context, not a dashboard.
In plain terms: UNG is 99.9% below its highest-ever price. Dipsern checks every past time it was this far down and grades how the next 90 days usually went.
Right now UNG — United States Natural Gas Fund — is in a historic crash, down 99.9% from its record high. Last price: $11.76. When an asset is this far below its peak, the binary becomes recovery vs. zero. Dipsern's segmentation answers the question with data, not narratives.
UNG reaches this drawdown band repeatedly in its history (3522 observations), which is a large sample for the segmentation engine to compute a stable median forward return. The engine uses a rolling 90-day window and gives more weight to recent years — this lets the signal adapt to regime changes (e.g., post-COVID volatility) without losing the long-run base rate.
ETFs aggregate constituent behavior, so their drawdowns tend to be shallower but more persistent than single stocks. The median forward return at a given drawdown level for an ETF is usually a more stable signal than for an individual equity. In crash territory, the most informative number is the worst observed forward return — not the median. The full app shows the max-loss column for the current segment.
Five tickers closest to UNG's distance from all-time high. Same category, one tap away.
Dipsern segments the full drawdown range into 20 equal-width bands. The table shows the number of confirmed historical observations in each band for UNG. Median forward returns, win rates, and prediction errors are available in the full analysis.
We segment 40+ years of UNG's price history into 20 equal-width drawdown bands and compute forward median returns, win rates, and prediction error per band. No look-ahead bias. Pure NumPy. Open math, gated numbers.
Years of history
40+
Drawdown bands
20
Look-ahead bias
None
Data sources
4
See the Dipsern grade, median returns, win rates, prediction accuracy, 8 interactive charts, historical price paths, and a plain-English verdict for UNG.
Dipsern is research and a second opinion — not a broker. You'd buy UNG at your own broker.
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Signal computed Jun 17, 2026 using default parameters (90-day return period, 20 segments, 0.95 decay). Data sourced from Yahoo Finance, Binance, CoinGecko, and Steam Market.