Invesco Solar ETF
$60.58
-72.2%
Jun 17, 2026
C
MarginalGraded against TAN's own history at this drawdown — not the market's.
What it means: TAN's own history does not strongly favor buying at this level yet.
What to do: Consider watching and waiting for a deeper dip or a higher grade.
The fund will generally invest at least 90% of its total assets in the securities that comprise the underlying index. Strictly in accordance with its guidelines and mandated procedures, MAC Indexing LLC, has contracted with S&P DJI Netherlands B.V. to calculate and administer the underlying index, which seeks to track the performance of companies in global solar energy businesses. The fund is non-diversified.
Three plain-English paragraphs — current state, historical base rate, and interpretation — so you walk away with context, not a dashboard.
In plain terms: TAN is 72.2% below its highest-ever price. Dipsern checks every past time it was this far down and grades how the next 90 days usually went.
Invesco Solar ETF (TAN) sits 72.2% off its peak and is currently in a historic crash, last printing at $60.58. Historic crashes (60%+ drawdowns) are rare events. For some assets they marked generational entries; for others they were warning signs of permanent capital loss.
History at this drawdown level is well-populated for TAN — 463 confirmed observations in the 75%-to-70% band. The Dipsern engine uses these to compute a rolling median rather than a mean, because medians are robust to the kind of fat tails you find in etfs return distributions. The win rate (% of episodes that closed positive after 90 days) is shown in the segments table below.
For broad-index ETFs the historical base rate is exceptionally stable; for narrow thematic ETFs (e.g., ARKK, cannabis, leveraged), drawdowns are deeper and the sample size at each band is smaller. Crash-level drawdowns are tail events with few historical analogs. The signal should be read as "here's what happened the last few times" rather than a base-rate forecast.
Five tickers closest to TAN's distance from all-time high. Same category, one tap away.
Dipsern segments the full drawdown range into 20 equal-width bands. The table shows the number of confirmed historical observations in each band for TAN. Median forward returns, win rates, and prediction errors are available in the full analysis.
We segment 40+ years of TAN's price history into 20 equal-width drawdown bands and compute forward median returns, win rates, and prediction error per band. No look-ahead bias. Pure NumPy. Open math, gated numbers.
Years of history
40+
Drawdown bands
20
Look-ahead bias
None
Data sources
4
See the Dipsern grade, median returns, win rates, prediction accuracy, 8 interactive charts, historical price paths, and a plain-English verdict for TAN.
Dipsern is research and a second opinion — not a broker. You'd buy TAN at your own broker.
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Signal computed Jun 17, 2026 using default parameters (90-day return period, 20 segments, 0.95 decay). Data sourced from Yahoo Finance, Binance, CoinGecko, and Steam Market.