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SOXS

SOXS

Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bear 3X Shares

ETFsMEXMXN-100.0% from ATH
Current Price

$4.63

Drawdown from ATH

-100.0%

Last Updated

Jun 17, 2026

Dipsern Grade90d

C

Marginal

Graded against SOXS's own history at this drawdown — not the market's.

What it means: SOXS's own history does not strongly favor buying at this level yet.

What to do: Consider watching and waiting for a deeper dip or a higher grade.

Median 90-Day Return
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Historical Win Rate
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Last 30 days-59.77%
May 5Jun 16
About SOXS

Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bear 3X Shares

The fund invests at least 80% of the fund’s net assets in financial instruments, that, in combination, provide 3X daily inverse (opposite) or short exposure to the index or to ETFs that track the index, consistent with the fund’s investment objective. The index is a rules-based, modified float-adjusted market capitalization-weighted index that tracks the performance of the thirty largest U.S. listed semiconductor companies. The fund is non-diversified.

The reading

How Dipsern reads SOXS right now.

Three plain-English paragraphs — current state, historical base rate, and interpretation — so you walk away with context, not a dashboard.

Snapshot

How is SOXS doing right now?

In plain terms: SOXS is 100% below its highest-ever price. Dipsern checks every past time it was this far down and grades how the next 90 days usually went.

SOXS (Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bear 3X Shares) is 100.0% below its historical peak. Tape reads in a historic crash, with the last trade at $4.63. Historic crashes (60%+ drawdowns) are rare events. For some assets they marked generational entries; for others they were warning signs of permanent capital loss.

Historical base rate

What history says at this drawdown

SOXS reaches this drawdown band repeatedly in its history (3078 observations), which is a large sample for the segmentation engine to compute a stable median forward return. The engine uses a rolling 90-day window and gives more weight to recent years — this lets the signal adapt to regime changes (e.g., post-COVID volatility) without losing the long-run base rate.

Interpretation

What this means for SOXS

For broad-index ETFs the historical base rate is exceptionally stable; for narrow thematic ETFs (e.g., ARKK, cannabis, leveraged), drawdowns are deeper and the sample size at each band is smaller. Crash-level drawdowns are tail events with few historical analogs. The signal should be read as "here's what happened the last few times" rather than a base-rate forecast.

Read how Dipsern grades signals
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Historical depth

Sample sizes by drawdown band

Dipsern segments the full drawdown range into 20 equal-width bands. The table shows the number of confirmed historical observations in each band for SOXS. Median forward returns, win rates, and prediction errors are available in the full analysis.

Drawdown BandObservationsMedian ReturnWin Rate
-100% to -95%Current3078
-95% to -90%168
-90% to -85%92
-85% to -80%178
-80% to -75%64
-75% to -70%115
-70% to -65%76
-65% to -60%51
-60% to -55%22
-55% to -50%14
-50% to -45%12
-45% to -40%2
Methodology

Every grade is reproducible.

We segment 40+ years of SOXS's price history into 20 equal-width drawdown bands and compute forward median returns, win rates, and prediction error per band. No look-ahead bias. Pure NumPy. Open math, gated numbers.

Read the methodologyBrowse the API

Years of history

40+

Drawdown bands

20

Look-ahead bias

None

Data sources

4

Unlock SOXS's full analysis

See the Dipsern grade, median returns, win rates, prediction accuracy, 8 interactive charts, historical price paths, and a plain-English verdict for SOXS.

Dipsern is research and a second opinion — not a broker. You'd buy SOXS at your own broker.

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Signal computed Jun 17, 2026 using default parameters (90-day return period, 20 segments, 0.95 decay). Data sourced from Yahoo Finance, Binance, CoinGecko, and Steam Market.