SOXL

How is SOXL doing right now?

In plain terms: SOXL is 53.4% below its highest-ever price. Dipsern checks every past time it was this far down and grades how the next 90 days usually went.

As of the latest market close, Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X Shares (SOXL) is trading in a severe drawdown, 53.4% below its all-time high at $140.25. Severe drawdowns separate structurally sound assets from the ones that don't recover. The historical data below shows what SOXL did after similar episodes.

What history says at this drawdown

History at this drawdown level is well-populated for SOXL — 206 confirmed observations in the 55%-to-50% band. The Dipsern engine uses these to compute a rolling median rather than a mean, because medians are robust to the kind of fat tails you find in etfs return distributions. The win rate (% of episodes that closed positive after 90 days) is shown in the segments table below.

What this means for SOXL

ETFs aggregate constituent behavior, so their drawdowns tend to be shallower but more persistent than single stocks. The median forward return at a given drawdown level for an ETF is usually a more stable signal than for an individual equity. At this depth, focus on prediction error and sample size before median return. A high historical median return at -40% means nothing if the prediction error was also 30%.