Direxion Daily Homebuilders & Supplies Bull 3X Shares
$44.79
-74.2%
Jun 17, 2026
C
MarginalGraded against NAIL's own history at this drawdown — not the market's.
What it means: NAIL's own history does not strongly favor buying at this level yet.
What to do: Consider watching and waiting for a deeper dip or a higher grade.
The fund invests at least 80% of its net assets in financial instruments, that, in combination, provide 3X daily leveraged exposure to the index, consistent with the fund's investment objective. The index measures U.S. companies in the home construction sector and defines homebuilder & supplier companies as those that provide a wide range of products and services related to homebuilding, including home construction and producers, sellers and suppliers of building materials, furnishings and fixtu
Three plain-English paragraphs — current state, historical base rate, and interpretation — so you walk away with context, not a dashboard.
In plain terms: NAIL is 74.2% below its highest-ever price. Dipsern checks every past time it was this far down and grades how the next 90 days usually went.
Right now NAIL — Direxion Daily Homebuilders & Supplies Bull 3X Shares — is in a historic crash, down 74.2% from its record high. Last price: $44.79. When an asset is this far below its peak, the binary becomes recovery vs. zero. Dipsern's segmentation answers the question with data, not narratives.
History at this drawdown level is well-populated for NAIL — 186 confirmed observations in the 75%-to-70% band. The Dipsern engine uses these to compute a rolling median rather than a mean, because medians are robust to the kind of fat tails you find in etfs return distributions. The win rate (% of episodes that closed positive after 90 days) is shown in the segments table below.
ETFs aggregate constituent behavior, so their drawdowns tend to be shallower but more persistent than single stocks. The median forward return at a given drawdown level for an ETF is usually a more stable signal than for an individual equity. In crash territory, the most informative number is the worst observed forward return — not the median. The full app shows the max-loss column for the current segment.
Five tickers closest to NAIL's distance from all-time high. Same category, one tap away.
Dipsern segments the full drawdown range into 20 equal-width bands. The table shows the number of confirmed historical observations in each band for NAIL. Median forward returns, win rates, and prediction errors are available in the full analysis.
We segment 40+ years of NAIL's price history into 20 equal-width drawdown bands and compute forward median returns, win rates, and prediction error per band. No look-ahead bias. Pure NumPy. Open math, gated numbers.
Years of history
40+
Drawdown bands
20
Look-ahead bias
None
Data sources
4
See the Dipsern grade, median returns, win rates, prediction accuracy, 8 interactive charts, historical price paths, and a plain-English verdict for NAIL.
Dipsern is research and a second opinion — not a broker. You'd buy NAIL at your own broker.
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Signal computed Jun 17, 2026 using default parameters (90-day return period, 20 segments, 0.95 decay). Data sourced from Yahoo Finance, Binance, CoinGecko, and Steam Market.