State Street SPDR S&P Aerospace & Defense ETF
$281.81
-3.7%
Jun 17, 2026
C
MarginalGraded against XAR's own history at this drawdown — not the market's.
What it means: XAR's own history does not strongly favor buying at this level yet.
What to do: Consider watching and waiting for a deeper dip or a higher grade.
In seeking to track the performance of the S&P Aerospace & Defense Select Industry Index (the "index"), the fund employs a sampling strategy. It generally invests substantially all, but at least 80%, of its total assets in the securities comprising the index. The index represents the aerospace and defense segment of the S&P Total Market Index ("S&P TMI").
Three plain-English paragraphs — current state, historical base rate, and interpretation — so you walk away with context, not a dashboard.
In plain terms: XAR is 3.7% below its highest-ever price. Dipsern checks every past time it was this far down and grades how the next 90 days usually went.
SPDR S&P Aerospace & Defense ETF (XAR) sits 3.7% off its peak and is currently in a shallow pullback, last printing at $281.81. Shallow pullbacks like this are routine — historically ETFs assets revisit a 5-10% dip several times a year, and most resolve back to highs within weeks.
History at this drawdown level is well-populated for XAR — 2127 confirmed observations in the 5%-to-0% band. The Dipsern engine uses these to compute a rolling median rather than a mean, because medians are robust to the kind of fat tails you find in etfs return distributions. The win rate (% of episodes that closed positive after 90 days) is shown in the segments table below.
For broad-index ETFs the historical base rate is exceptionally stable; for narrow thematic ETFs (e.g., ARKK, cannabis, leveraged), drawdowns are deeper and the sample size at each band is smaller. Shallow pullbacks are where dip-buying frameworks start to pay off, but only marginally. The median forward return in shallow bands is usually positive but not dramatic.
Five tickers closest to XAR's distance from all-time high. Same category, one tap away.
Dipsern segments the full drawdown range into 20 equal-width bands. The table shows the number of confirmed historical observations in each band for XAR. Median forward returns, win rates, and prediction errors are available in the full analysis.
We segment 40+ years of XAR's price history into 20 equal-width drawdown bands and compute forward median returns, win rates, and prediction error per band. No look-ahead bias. Pure NumPy. Open math, gated numbers.
Years of history
40+
Drawdown bands
20
Look-ahead bias
None
Data sources
4
See the Dipsern grade, median returns, win rates, prediction accuracy, 8 interactive charts, historical price paths, and a plain-English verdict for XAR.
Dipsern is research and a second opinion — not a broker. You'd buy XAR at your own broker.
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Signal computed Jun 17, 2026 using default parameters (90-day return period, 20 segments, 0.95 decay). Data sourced from Yahoo Finance, Binance, CoinGecko, and Steam Market.