EMB

How is EMB doing right now?

In plain terms: EMB is 21.5% below its highest-ever price. Dipsern checks every past time it was this far down and grades how the next 90 days usually went.

Right now EMB — iShares J.P. Morgan USD Emerging Markets Bond ETF — is in a deep drawdown, down 21.5% from its record high. Last price: $96.67. Asset price action of this severity has historically marked attractive entry zones — but only when fundamentals weren't permanently impaired. The historical median return below quantifies that pattern for EMB specifically.

What history says at this drawdown

History at this drawdown level is well-populated for EMB — 265 confirmed observations in the 25%-to-20% band. The Dipsern engine uses these to compute a rolling median rather than a mean, because medians are robust to the kind of fat tails you find in etfs return distributions. The win rate (% of episodes that closed positive after 90 days) is shown in the segments table below.

What this means for EMB

ETFs aggregate constituent behavior, so their drawdowns tend to be shallower but more persistent than single stocks. The median forward return at a given drawdown level for an ETF is usually a more stable signal than for an individual equity. Below 20% drawdowns the historical median forward return often becomes attractive — but with rising variance. The win-rate column in the segments table is more useful than the median at this depth.