SWK

How is SWK doing right now?

In plain terms: SWK is 44.1% below its highest-ever price. Dipsern checks every past time it was this far down and grades how the next 90 days usually went.

SWK (Stanley Black & Decker) is 44.1% below its historical peak. Tape reads in a severe drawdown, with the last trade at $103.89. A 35-60% drawdown is the territory where most retail investors capitulate. It's also where the highest-probability historical entries have clustered for resilient assets.

What history says at this drawdown

History at this drawdown level is well-populated for SWK — 295 confirmed observations in the 45%-to-40% band. The Dipsern engine uses these to compute a rolling median rather than a mean, because medians are robust to the kind of fat tails you find in us stocks return distributions. The win rate (% of episodes that closed positive after 90 days) is shown in the segments table below.

What this means for SWK

S&P 500 names behave differently from small-caps at the same drawdown level — the Dipsern segmentation is per-ticker, so historical base rates for SWK reflect its own volatility regime, not the market's. Severe drawdowns are where Dipsern's segmentation provides the most edge: ordinary base rates don't apply, but the asset's own history at this exact depth does. The forward-return distribution here is bimodal — either rapid recovery or continued decline.