VALE

How is VALE doing right now?

In plain terms: VALE is 10.3% below its highest-ever price. Dipsern checks every past time it was this far down and grades how the next 90 days usually went.

As of the latest market close, Vale S.A. (VALE) is trading in a moderate correction, 10.3% below its all-time high at $15.98. Corrections in this band are common during macro repricings (rate scares, sector rotations, earnings shocks). The question is whether the cause is durable or transient.

What history says at this drawdown

Across all available history, VALE has spent enough trading days in the 15%-to-10% drawdown band to build a large sample (279 observations). Dipsern segments these by drawdown depth and computes the rolling median forward 90-day return — that median is the primary signal you see in the full app, and it's substantially more robust than mean-based forecasts because it ignores fat-tail outliers in both directions.

What this means for VALE

For US large-caps, drawdowns of 20-30% are typically driven by macro repricing (rates, earnings, sector rotation). Single-name 50%+ drawdowns are usually structural — the signal alone won't tell you which, but the segments table will show whether prior episodes recovered. This is the band where most successful "buy the dip" strategies have historically operated. The median forward return here for VALE is in the full app, alongside the segment-level win rate.