State Street SPDR Portfolio Long Term Treasury ETF
$26.18
-36.5%
Jun 17, 2026
C
MarginalGraded against SPTL's own history at this drawdown — not the market's.
What it means: SPTL's own history does not strongly favor buying at this level yet.
What to do: Consider watching and waiting for a deeper dip or a higher grade.
The fund generally invests substantially all, but at least 80%, of its total assets in the securities comprising the index and in securities that the adviser determines have economic characteristics that are substantially identical to the economic characteristics of the securities that comprise the index. The index is designed to measure the performance of public obligations of the U.S. Treasury that have a remaining maturity of 10 years or more.
Three plain-English paragraphs — current state, historical base rate, and interpretation — so you walk away with context, not a dashboard.
In plain terms: SPTL is 36.5% below its highest-ever price. Dipsern checks every past time it was this far down and grades how the next 90 days usually went.
SPDR Portfolio Long Term Treasury ETF (SPTL) sits 36.5% off its peak and is currently in a severe drawdown, last printing at $26.18. A 35-60% drawdown is the territory where most retail investors capitulate. It's also where the highest-probability historical entries have clustered for resilient assets.
SPTL reaches this drawdown band repeatedly in its history (609 observations), which is a large sample for the segmentation engine to compute a stable median forward return. The engine uses a rolling 90-day window and gives more weight to recent years — this lets the signal adapt to regime changes (e.g., post-COVID volatility) without losing the long-run base rate.
For broad-index ETFs the historical base rate is exceptionally stable; for narrow thematic ETFs (e.g., ARKK, cannabis, leveraged), drawdowns are deeper and the sample size at each band is smaller. Severe drawdowns are where Dipsern's segmentation provides the most edge: ordinary base rates don't apply, but the asset's own history at this exact depth does. The forward-return distribution here is bimodal — either rapid recovery or continued decline.
Five tickers closest to SPTL's distance from all-time high. Same category, one tap away.
Dipsern segments the full drawdown range into 20 equal-width bands. The table shows the number of confirmed historical observations in each band for SPTL. Median forward returns, win rates, and prediction errors are available in the full analysis.
We segment 40+ years of SPTL's price history into 20 equal-width drawdown bands and compute forward median returns, win rates, and prediction error per band. No look-ahead bias. Pure NumPy. Open math, gated numbers.
Years of history
40+
Drawdown bands
20
Look-ahead bias
None
Data sources
4
See the Dipsern grade, median returns, win rates, prediction accuracy, 8 interactive charts, historical price paths, and a plain-English verdict for SPTL.
Dipsern is research and a second opinion — not a broker. You'd buy SPTL at your own broker.
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Signal computed Jun 17, 2026 using default parameters (90-day return period, 20 segments, 0.95 decay). Data sourced from Yahoo Finance, Binance, CoinGecko, and Steam Market.