PGR

How is PGR doing right now?

In plain terms: PGR is 25.1% below its highest-ever price. Dipsern checks every past time it was this far down and grades how the next 90 days usually went.

PGR (Progressive Corporation) is 25.1% below its historical peak. Tape reads in a deep drawdown, with the last trade at $204.66. Deep drawdowns shift the conversation from "is this a buy" to "what's broken". Sometimes it's macro. Sometimes it's the asset itself. Dipsern's data tells you which one history rewarded.

What history says at this drawdown

PGR reaches this drawdown band repeatedly in its history (710 observations), which is a large sample for the segmentation engine to compute a stable median forward return. The engine uses a rolling 90-day window and gives more weight to recent years — this lets the signal adapt to regime changes (e.g., post-COVID volatility) without losing the long-run base rate.

What this means for PGR

S&P 500 names behave differently from small-caps at the same drawdown level — the Dipsern segmentation is per-ticker, so historical base rates for PGR reflect its own volatility regime, not the market's. Deep drawdowns require a story for why this time isn't different. The Dipsern signal can tell you what historically happened next; it can't tell you whether the current setup matches the historical analog.