GDXJ

How is GDXJ doing right now?

In plain terms: GDXJ is 26.7% below its highest-ever price. Dipsern checks every past time it was this far down and grades how the next 90 days usually went.

GDXJ (VanEck Junior Gold Miners ETF) is 26.7% below its historical peak. Tape reads in a deep drawdown, with the last trade at $114.44. Deep drawdowns shift the conversation from "is this a buy" to "what's broken". Sometimes it's macro. Sometimes it's the asset itself. Dipsern's data tells you which one history rewarded.

What history says at this drawdown

History at this drawdown level is well-populated for GDXJ — 73 confirmed observations in the 30%-to-25% band. The Dipsern engine uses these to compute a rolling median rather than a mean, because medians are robust to the kind of fat tails you find in etfs return distributions. The win rate (% of episodes that closed positive after 90 days) is shown in the segments table below.

What this means for GDXJ

For broad-index ETFs the historical base rate is exceptionally stable; for narrow thematic ETFs (e.g., ARKK, cannabis, leveraged), drawdowns are deeper and the sample size at each band is smaller. Deep drawdowns require a story for why this time isn't different. The Dipsern signal can tell you what historically happened next; it can't tell you whether the current setup matches the historical analog.