CF

How is CF doing right now?

In plain terms: CF is 22.9% below its highest-ever price. Dipsern checks every past time it was this far down and grades how the next 90 days usually went.

CF (CF Industries) is 22.9% below its historical peak. Tape reads in a deep drawdown, with the last trade at $105.59. Deep drawdowns shift the conversation from "is this a buy" to "what's broken". Sometimes it's macro. Sometimes it's the asset itself. Dipsern's data tells you which one history rewarded.

What history says at this drawdown

Across all available history, CF has spent enough trading days in the 25%-to-20% drawdown band to build a large sample (452 observations). Dipsern segments these by drawdown depth and computes the rolling median forward 90-day return — that median is the primary signal you see in the full app, and it's substantially more robust than mean-based forecasts because it ignores fat-tail outliers in both directions.

What this means for CF

S&P 500 names behave differently from small-caps at the same drawdown level — the Dipsern segmentation is per-ticker, so historical base rates for CF reflect its own volatility regime, not the market's. Deep drawdowns require a story for why this time isn't different. The Dipsern signal can tell you what historically happened next; it can't tell you whether the current setup matches the historical analog.