CCL

How is CCL doing right now?

In plain terms: CCL is 52.8% below its highest-ever price. Dipsern checks every past time it was this far down and grades how the next 90 days usually went.

As of the latest market close, Carnival (CCL) is trading in a severe drawdown, 52.8% below its all-time high at $30.9. Severe drawdowns separate structurally sound assets from the ones that don't recover. The historical data below shows what CCL did after similar episodes.

What history says at this drawdown

History at this drawdown level is well-populated for CCL — 373 confirmed observations in the 55%-to-50% band. The Dipsern engine uses these to compute a rolling median rather than a mean, because medians are robust to the kind of fat tails you find in us stocks return distributions. The win rate (% of episodes that closed positive after 90 days) is shown in the segments table below.

What this means for CCL

For US large-caps, drawdowns of 20-30% are typically driven by macro repricing (rates, earnings, sector rotation). Single-name 50%+ drawdowns are usually structural — the signal alone won't tell you which, but the segments table will show whether prior episodes recovered. At this depth, focus on prediction error and sample size before median return. A high historical median return at -40% means nothing if the prediction error was also 30%.