Vanguard Short-Term Bond Index Fund ETF Shares
$77.91
-0.7%
Jun 17, 2026
D
WeakGraded against BSV's own history at this drawdown — not the market's.
What it means: BSV's own history does not strongly favor buying at this level yet.
What to do: Consider watching and waiting for a deeper dip or a higher grade.
This index includes all medium and larger issues of U.S. government, investment-grade corporate, and investment-grade international dollar-denominated bonds that have maturities between 1 and 5 years and are publicly issued. All of the fund's investments will be selected through the sampling process, and at least 80% of its assets will be invested in bonds held in the index.
Three plain-English paragraphs — current state, historical base rate, and interpretation — so you walk away with context, not a dashboard.
In plain terms: BSV is 0.7% below its highest-ever price. Dipsern checks every past time it was this far down and grades how the next 90 days usually went.
Vanguard Short-Term Bond ETF (BSV) sits 0.7% off its peak and is currently at or near all-time highs, last printing at $77.91. That puts BSV in a momentum regime: buyers are in control and there's no meaningful technical damage on the chart yet.
BSV reaches this drawdown band repeatedly in its history (4430 observations), which is a large sample for the segmentation engine to compute a stable median forward return. The engine uses a rolling 90-day window and gives more weight to recent years — this lets the signal adapt to regime changes (e.g., post-COVID volatility) without losing the long-run base rate.
For broad-index ETFs the historical base rate is exceptionally stable; for narrow thematic ETFs (e.g., ARKK, cannabis, leveraged), drawdowns are deeper and the sample size at each band is smaller. At this level the Dipsern signal is mostly tracking momentum, not mean reversion. Most buying-the-dip frameworks aren't relevant when there is no dip.
Five tickers closest to BSV's distance from all-time high. Same category, one tap away.
Dipsern segments the full drawdown range into 20 equal-width bands. The table shows the number of confirmed historical observations in each band for BSV. Median forward returns, win rates, and prediction errors are available in the full analysis.
We segment 40+ years of BSV's price history into 20 equal-width drawdown bands and compute forward median returns, win rates, and prediction error per band. No look-ahead bias. Pure NumPy. Open math, gated numbers.
Years of history
40+
Drawdown bands
20
Look-ahead bias
None
Data sources
4
See the Dipsern grade, median returns, win rates, prediction accuracy, 8 interactive charts, historical price paths, and a plain-English verdict for BSV.
Dipsern is research and a second opinion — not a broker. You'd buy BSV at your own broker.
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Signal computed Jun 17, 2026 using default parameters (90-day return period, 20 segments, 0.95 decay). Data sourced from Yahoo Finance, Binance, CoinGecko, and Steam Market.