ETFs signal
AAAU

AAAU

Goldman Sachs Physical Gold ETF

ETFsBTSUSD-19.7% from ATH
Current Price

$42.72

Drawdown from ATH

-19.7%

Last Updated

Jun 17, 2026

Dipsern Grade90d

C

Marginal

Graded against AAAU's own history at this drawdown — not the market's.

What it means: AAAU's own history does not strongly favor buying at this level yet.

What to do: Consider watching and waiting for a deeper dip or a higher grade.

Median 90-Day Return
Historical Win Rate
Last 30 days-4.88%
May 5Jun 16
About AAAU

Goldman Sachs Physical Gold ETF

The trust holds London Bars and Physical Gold of other specifications without numismatic value. It receives gold deposited by Authorized Participants in exchange for the creation of Baskets and delivers gold to Authorized Participants in exchange for Baskets surrendered to it for redemption.

The reading

How Dipsern reads AAAU right now.

Three plain-English paragraphs — current state, historical base rate, and interpretation — so you walk away with context, not a dashboard.

Snapshot

How is AAAU doing right now?

In plain terms: AAAU is 19.7% below its highest-ever price. Dipsern checks every past time it was this far down and grades how the next 90 days usually went.

As of the latest market close, Goldman Sachs Physical Gold ETF (AAAU) is trading in a moderate correction, 19.7% below its all-time high at $42.72. Corrections in this band are common during macro repricings (rate scares, sector rotations, earnings shocks). The question is whether the cause is durable or transient.

Historical base rate

What history says at this drawdown

History at this drawdown level is well-populated for AAAU — 117 confirmed observations in the 20%-to-15% band. The Dipsern engine uses these to compute a rolling median rather than a mean, because medians are robust to the kind of fat tails you find in etfs return distributions. The win rate (% of episodes that closed positive after 90 days) is shown in the segments table below.

Interpretation

What this means for AAAU

ETFs aggregate constituent behavior, so their drawdowns tend to be shallower but more persistent than single stocks. The median forward return at a given drawdown level for an ETF is usually a more stable signal than for an individual equity. This is the band where most successful "buy the dip" strategies have historically operated. The median forward return here for AAAU is in the full app, alongside the segment-level win rate.

Comparable signals

Other ETFs at similar drawdown levels

Five tickers closest to AAAU's distance from all-time high. Same category, one tap away.

iShares Gold Trust

-19.8% from ATH

SPDR Gold Shares

-19.8% from ATH

iShares J.P. Morgan USD Emerging Markets Bond ETF

-21.5% from ATH

SPDR S&P Biotech ETF

-21.8% from ATH

Teucrium Soybean Fund

-17.0% from ATH

Historical depth

Sample sizes by drawdown band

Dipsern segments the full drawdown range into 20 equal-width bands. The table shows the number of confirmed historical observations in each band for AAAU. Median forward returns, win rates, and prediction errors are available in the full analysis.

Drawdown BandObservationsMedian ReturnWin Rate
-25% to -20%16
-20% to -15%Current117
-15% to -10%337
-10% to -5%411
-5% to 0%1026
Methodology

Every grade is reproducible.

We segment 40+ years of AAAU's price history into 20 equal-width drawdown bands and compute forward median returns, win rates, and prediction error per band. No look-ahead bias. Pure NumPy. Open math, gated numbers.

Years of history

40+

Drawdown bands

20

Look-ahead bias

None

Data sources

4

Unlock AAAU's full analysis

See the Dipsern grade, median returns, win rates, prediction accuracy, 8 interactive charts, historical price paths, and a plain-English verdict for AAAU.

Dipsern is research and a second opinion — not a broker. You'd buy AAAU at your own broker.

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Signal computed Jun 17, 2026 using default parameters (90-day return period, 20 segments, 0.95 decay). Data sourced from Yahoo Finance, Binance, CoinGecko, and Steam Market.