IAU

How is IAU doing right now?

In plain terms: IAU is 19.8% below its highest-ever price. Dipsern checks every past time it was this far down and grades how the next 90 days usually went.

iShares Gold Trust (IAU) sits 19.8% off its peak and is currently in a moderate correction, last printing at $81.5. A drawdown of this depth is where patient buyers start paying attention. Historically the asymmetry begins to favor accumulation here, especially when paired with structural demand.

What history says at this drawdown

Across all available history, IAU has spent enough trading days in the 20%-to-15% drawdown band to build a large sample (370 observations). Dipsern segments these by drawdown depth and computes the rolling median forward 90-day return — that median is the primary signal you see in the full app, and it's substantially more robust than mean-based forecasts because it ignores fat-tail outliers in both directions.

What this means for IAU

For broad-index ETFs the historical base rate is exceptionally stable; for narrow thematic ETFs (e.g., ARKK, cannabis, leveraged), drawdowns are deeper and the sample size at each band is smaller. Moderate corrections are the highest-information zone for the Dipsern signal: enough drawdown for mean-reversion to matter, not so much that fundamentals are likely broken. Watch the prediction-error column — if past signals at this level were accurate, the current one is more trustworthy.