State Street SPDR S&P Semiconductor ETF
$506.66
-22.0%
Sep 19, 2026
C
MarginalGraded against XSD's own history at this drawdown — not the market's.
What it means: XSD's own history does not strongly favor buying at this level yet.
What to do: Consider watching and waiting for a deeper dip or a higher grade.
In seeking to track the performance of the S&P Semiconductor Select Industry Index (the "index"), the fund employs a sampling strategy. It generally invests substantially all, but at least 80%, of its total assets in the securities comprising the index. The index represents the semiconductors segment of the S&P Total Market Index ("S&P TMI").
Three plain-English paragraphs — current state, historical base rate, and interpretation — so you walk away with context, not a dashboard.
In plain terms: XSD is 22% below its highest-ever price. Dipsern checks every past time it was this far down and grades how the next 90 days usually went.
SPDR S&P Semiconductor ETF (XSD) sits 22.0% off its peak and is currently in a deep drawdown, last printing at $506.66. Deep drawdowns shift the conversation from "is this a buy" to "what's broken". Sometimes it's macro. Sometimes it's the asset itself. Dipsern's data tells you which one history rewarded.
History at this drawdown level is well-populated for XSD — 393 confirmed observations in the 25%-to-20% band. The Dipsern engine uses these to compute a rolling median rather than a mean, because medians are robust to the kind of fat tails you find in etfs return distributions. The win rate (% of episodes that closed positive after 90 days) is shown in the segments table below.
For broad-index ETFs the historical base rate is exceptionally stable; for narrow thematic ETFs (e.g., ARKK, cannabis, leveraged), drawdowns are deeper and the sample size at each band is smaller. Deep drawdowns require a story for why this time isn't different. The Dipsern signal can tell you what historically happened next; it can't tell you whether the current setup matches the historical analog.
Five tickers closest to XSD's distance from all-time high. Same category, one tap away.
Dipsern segments the full drawdown range into 20 equal-width bands. The table shows the number of confirmed historical observations in each band for XSD. Median forward returns, win rates, and prediction errors are available in the full analysis.
We segment 40+ years of XSD's price history into 20 equal-width drawdown bands and compute forward median returns, win rates, and prediction error per band. No look-ahead bias. Pure NumPy. Open math, gated numbers.
Years of history
40+
Drawdown bands
20
Look-ahead bias
None
Data sources
4
See the Dipsern grade, median returns, win rates, prediction accuracy, 8 interactive charts, historical price paths, and a plain-English verdict for XSD.
Dipsern is research and a second opinion — not a broker. You'd buy XSD at your own broker.
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Signal computed Sep 19, 2026 using default parameters (90-day return period, 20 segments, 0.95 decay). Data sourced from Yahoo Finance, Binance, CoinGecko, and Steam Market.