State Street Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF
$186.44
-5.9%
Jun 17, 2026
D
WeakGraded against XLK's own history at this drawdown — not the market's.
What it means: XLK's own history does not strongly favor buying at this level yet.
What to do: Consider watching and waiting for a deeper dip or a higher grade.
In seeking to track the performance of the index, the fund employs a replication strategy, which means that the fund typically invests in substantially all of the securities represented in the index in approximately the same proportions as the index. It generally invests substantially all, but at least 95%, of its total assets in the securities comprising the index. The fund is non-diversified.
Three plain-English paragraphs — current state, historical base rate, and interpretation — so you walk away with context, not a dashboard.
In plain terms: XLK is 5.9% below its highest-ever price. Dipsern checks every past time it was this far down and grades how the next 90 days usually went.
XLK (Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund) is 5.9% below its historical peak. Tape reads in a shallow pullback, with the last trade at $186.44. Shallow pullbacks like this are routine — historically ETFs assets revisit a 5-10% dip several times a year, and most resolve back to highs within weeks.
XLK reaches this drawdown band repeatedly in its history (535 observations), which is a large sample for the segmentation engine to compute a stable median forward return. The engine uses a rolling 90-day window and gives more weight to recent years — this lets the signal adapt to regime changes (e.g., post-COVID volatility) without losing the long-run base rate.
For broad-index ETFs the historical base rate is exceptionally stable; for narrow thematic ETFs (e.g., ARKK, cannabis, leveraged), drawdowns are deeper and the sample size at each band is smaller. Shallow pullbacks are where dip-buying frameworks start to pay off, but only marginally. The median forward return in shallow bands is usually positive but not dramatic.
Five tickers closest to XLK's distance from all-time high. Same category, one tap away.
Dipsern segments the full drawdown range into 20 equal-width bands. The table shows the number of confirmed historical observations in each band for XLK. Median forward returns, win rates, and prediction errors are available in the full analysis.
We segment 40+ years of XLK's price history into 20 equal-width drawdown bands and compute forward median returns, win rates, and prediction error per band. No look-ahead bias. Pure NumPy. Open math, gated numbers.
Years of history
40+
Drawdown bands
20
Look-ahead bias
None
Data sources
4
See the Dipsern grade, median returns, win rates, prediction accuracy, 8 interactive charts, historical price paths, and a plain-English verdict for XLK.
Dipsern is research and a second opinion — not a broker. You'd buy XLK at your own broker.
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Signal computed Jun 17, 2026 using default parameters (90-day return period, 20 segments, 0.95 decay). Data sourced from Yahoo Finance, Binance, CoinGecko, and Steam Market.