State Street Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF
$54.35
-3.1%
Jun 17, 2026
D
WeakGraded against XLF's own history at this drawdown — not the market's.
What it means: XLF's own history does not strongly favor buying at this level yet.
What to do: Consider watching and waiting for a deeper dip or a higher grade.
The fund generally invests substantially all, but at least 95%, of its total assets in the securities comprising the index. The index includes companies that have been identified as Financial companies by the Global Industry Classification Standard, including securities of companies from the following industries: financial services; insurance; banks; capital markets; mortgage real estate investment trusts; and consumer finance. The fund is non-diversified.
Three plain-English paragraphs — current state, historical base rate, and interpretation — so you walk away with context, not a dashboard.
In plain terms: XLF is 3.1% below its highest-ever price. Dipsern checks every past time it was this far down and grades how the next 90 days usually went.
Right now XLF — Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund — is in a shallow pullback, down 3.1% from its record high. Last price: $54.35. A move of this size is statistically unremarkable. It's the kind of pullback that bounces fast or extends into a deeper correction; the next leg is what matters.
XLF reaches this drawdown band repeatedly in its history (2016 observations), which is a large sample for the segmentation engine to compute a stable median forward return. The engine uses a rolling 90-day window and gives more weight to recent years — this lets the signal adapt to regime changes (e.g., post-COVID volatility) without losing the long-run base rate.
ETFs aggregate constituent behavior, so their drawdowns tend to be shallower but more persistent than single stocks. The median forward return at a given drawdown level for an ETF is usually a more stable signal than for an individual equity. This drawdown band tends to mean-revert quickly. The Dipsern win rate here is informative — if it's well above 50%, momentum traders treat these dips as buy-the-pullback setups.
Five tickers closest to XLF's distance from all-time high. Same category, one tap away.
Dipsern segments the full drawdown range into 20 equal-width bands. The table shows the number of confirmed historical observations in each band for XLF. Median forward returns, win rates, and prediction errors are available in the full analysis.
We segment 40+ years of XLF's price history into 20 equal-width drawdown bands and compute forward median returns, win rates, and prediction error per band. No look-ahead bias. Pure NumPy. Open math, gated numbers.
Years of history
40+
Drawdown bands
20
Look-ahead bias
None
Data sources
4
See the Dipsern grade, median returns, win rates, prediction accuracy, 8 interactive charts, historical price paths, and a plain-English verdict for XLF.
Dipsern is research and a second opinion — not a broker. You'd buy XLF at your own broker.
Analyze XLF FreeNo credit card required · 5 free analyses per month
Signal computed Jun 17, 2026 using default parameters (90-day return period, 20 segments, 0.95 decay). Data sourced from Yahoo Finance, Binance, CoinGecko, and Steam Market.