VT

How is VT doing right now?

In plain terms: VT is 0.9% below its highest-ever price. Dipsern checks every past time it was this far down and grades how the next 90 days usually went.

Right now VT — Vanguard Total World Stock ETF — is at or near all-time highs, down 0.9% from its record high. Last price: $157.99. When an asset is this close to highs, drawdown signals are mostly noise — the more useful question is whether the next 5-10% pullback will be bought aggressively.

What history says at this drawdown

VT reaches this drawdown band repeatedly in its history (2460 observations), which is a large sample for the segmentation engine to compute a stable median forward return. The engine uses a rolling 90-day window and gives more weight to recent years — this lets the signal adapt to regime changes (e.g., post-COVID volatility) without losing the long-run base rate.

What this means for VT

ETFs aggregate constituent behavior, so their drawdowns tend to be shallower but more persistent than single stocks. The median forward return at a given drawdown level for an ETF is usually a more stable signal than for an individual equity. Use this snapshot to set expectations: this is where the asset is, not where it's likely to go. Drawdown-based signals only become high-conviction below shallow-pullback territory.