USDILS

How is USDILS doing right now?

In plain terms: USDILS is 38.4% below its highest-ever price. Dipsern checks every past time it was this far down and grades how the next 90 days usually went.

Right now USDILS — USD/ILS — is in a severe drawdown, down 38.4% from its record high. Last price: $2.91. Severe drawdowns separate structurally sound assets from the ones that don't recover. The historical data below shows what USDILS did after similar episodes.

What history says at this drawdown

USDILS reaches this drawdown band repeatedly in its history (5 observations), which is a modest sample for the segmentation engine to compute a stable median forward return. The engine uses a rolling 90-day window and gives more weight to recent years — this lets the signal adapt to regime changes (e.g., post-COVID volatility) without losing the long-run base rate.

What this means for USDILS

FX pairs rarely drawdown like equities — a 20%+ move is already extreme and usually macro-driven. The Dipsern segmentation still applies but the bands are typically shallower. At this depth, focus on prediction error and sample size before median return. A high historical median return at -40% means nothing if the prediction error was also 30%.