Ultrapar Participações S.A. · Energy
$23.88
-100.0%
Jun 17, 2026
D
WeakGraded against UGPA3's own history at this drawdown — not the market's.
What it means: UGPA3's own history does not strongly favor buying at this level yet.
What to do: Consider watching and waiting for a deeper dip or a higher grade.
Ultrapar Participações S.A., through its subsidiaries, operates in the energy, mobility, and logistics infrastructure sectors in Brazil, the rest of Europe, the United States, Canada, other Latin American countries, Oceania, and internationally. It operates through Ultragaz, Ipiranga, Ultracargo, and Hidrovias segments. The company distributes and sells oil-related products, biofuels, gasoline, ethanol, diesel, fuel oil, kerosene, natural gas for vehicles, and additive fuels under the Ipimax bra
Three plain-English paragraphs — current state, historical base rate, and interpretation — so you walk away with context, not a dashboard.
In plain terms: UGPA3 is 100% below its highest-ever price. Dipsern checks every past time it was this far down and grades how the next 90 days usually went.
As of the latest market close, Ultrapar Participacoes SA (UGPA3) is trading in a historic crash, 100.0% below its all-time high at $23.88. When an asset is this far below its peak, the binary becomes recovery vs. zero. Dipsern's segmentation answers the question with data, not narratives.
Across all available history, UGPA3 has spent enough trading days in the 100%-to-95% drawdown band to build a large sample (4684 observations). Dipsern segments these by drawdown depth and computes the rolling median forward 90-day return — that median is the primary signal you see in the full app, and it's substantially more robust than mean-based forecasts because it ignores fat-tail outliers in both directions.
Drawdown-based signals work across asset classes but the magnitude of meaningful moves varies. Dipsern computes the segmentation per-asset so the bands are calibrated to UGPA3's own volatility history. In crash territory, the most informative number is the worst observed forward return — not the median. The full app shows the max-loss column for the current segment.
Five tickers closest to UGPA3's distance from all-time high. Same category, one tap away.
Dipsern segments the full drawdown range into 20 equal-width bands. The table shows the number of confirmed historical observations in each band for UGPA3. Median forward returns, win rates, and prediction errors are available in the full analysis.
We segment 40+ years of UGPA3's price history into 20 equal-width drawdown bands and compute forward median returns, win rates, and prediction error per band. No look-ahead bias. Pure NumPy. Open math, gated numbers.
Years of history
40+
Drawdown bands
20
Look-ahead bias
None
Data sources
4
See the Dipsern grade, median returns, win rates, prediction accuracy, 8 interactive charts, historical price paths, and a plain-English verdict for UGPA3.
Dipsern is research and a second opinion — not a broker. You'd buy UGPA3 at your own broker.
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Signal computed Jun 17, 2026 using default parameters (90-day return period, 20 segments, 0.95 decay). Data sourced from Yahoo Finance, Binance, CoinGecko, and Steam Market.