TPL

How is TPL doing right now?

In plain terms: TPL is 37.7% below its highest-ever price. Dipsern checks every past time it was this far down and grades how the next 90 days usually went.

As of the latest market close, Texas Pacific Land Corporation (TPL) is trading in a severe drawdown, 37.7% below its all-time high at $356.35. Severe drawdowns separate structurally sound assets from the ones that don't recover. The historical data below shows what TPL did after similar episodes.

What history says at this drawdown

Across all available history, TPL has spent enough trading days in the 40%-to-35% drawdown band to build a large sample (837 observations). Dipsern segments these by drawdown depth and computes the rolling median forward 90-day return — that median is the primary signal you see in the full app, and it's substantially more robust than mean-based forecasts because it ignores fat-tail outliers in both directions.

What this means for TPL

For US large-caps, drawdowns of 20-30% are typically driven by macro repricing (rates, earnings, sector rotation). Single-name 50%+ drawdowns are usually structural — the signal alone won't tell you which, but the segments table will show whether prior episodes recovered. At this depth, focus on prediction error and sample size before median return. A high historical median return at -40% means nothing if the prediction error was also 30%.