TNA

How is TNA doing right now?

In plain terms: TNA is 35.4% below its highest-ever price. Dipsern checks every past time it was this far down and grades how the next 90 days usually went.

TNA (Direxion Daily Small Cap Bull 3X Shares) is 35.4% below its historical peak. Tape reads in a severe drawdown, with the last trade at $69.53. A 35-60% drawdown is the territory where most retail investors capitulate. It's also where the highest-probability historical entries have clustered for resilient assets.

What history says at this drawdown

TNA reaches this drawdown band repeatedly in its history (271 observations), which is a large sample for the segmentation engine to compute a stable median forward return. The engine uses a rolling 90-day window and gives more weight to recent years — this lets the signal adapt to regime changes (e.g., post-COVID volatility) without losing the long-run base rate.

What this means for TNA

For broad-index ETFs the historical base rate is exceptionally stable; for narrow thematic ETFs (e.g., ARKK, cannabis, leveraged), drawdowns are deeper and the sample size at each band is smaller. Severe drawdowns are where Dipsern's segmentation provides the most edge: ordinary base rates don't apply, but the asset's own history at this exact depth does. The forward-return distribution here is bimodal — either rapid recovery or continued decline.