Target Corporation · Consumer Defensive
$133.40
-42.1%
Jun 17, 2026
C
MarginalGraded against TGT's own history at this drawdown — not the market's.
What it means: TGT's own history does not strongly favor buying at this level yet.
What to do: Consider watching and waiting for a deeper dip or a higher grade.
Target Corporation operates as a general merchandise retailer in the United States. It offers apparel for women, men, young adults, kids, toddlers, and babies, as well as jewelry, accessories, and shoes; and beauty products, such as skin and bath care, cosmetics, hair care, oral care, deodorant, and shaving products. The company also provides food and beverage products comprising dry and perishable grocery, including snacks, candy, beverages, deli, bakery, meat, produce, and food service; electr
Three plain-English paragraphs — current state, historical base rate, and interpretation — so you walk away with context, not a dashboard.
In plain terms: TGT is 42.1% below its highest-ever price. Dipsern checks every past time it was this far down and grades how the next 90 days usually went.
Target Corporation (TGT) sits 42.1% off its peak and is currently in a severe drawdown, last printing at $133.4. A 35-60% drawdown is the territory where most retail investors capitulate. It's also where the highest-probability historical entries have clustered for resilient assets.
History at this drawdown level is well-populated for TGT — 374 confirmed observations in the 45%-to-40% band. The Dipsern engine uses these to compute a rolling median rather than a mean, because medians are robust to the kind of fat tails you find in us stocks return distributions. The win rate (% of episodes that closed positive after 90 days) is shown in the segments table below.
S&P 500 names behave differently from small-caps at the same drawdown level — the Dipsern segmentation is per-ticker, so historical base rates for TGT reflect its own volatility regime, not the market's. Severe drawdowns are where Dipsern's segmentation provides the most edge: ordinary base rates don't apply, but the asset's own history at this exact depth does. The forward-return distribution here is bimodal — either rapid recovery or continued decline.
Five tickers closest to TGT's distance from all-time high. Same category, one tap away.
Dipsern segments the full drawdown range into 20 equal-width bands. The table shows the number of confirmed historical observations in each band for TGT. Median forward returns, win rates, and prediction errors are available in the full analysis.
We segment 40+ years of TGT's price history into 20 equal-width drawdown bands and compute forward median returns, win rates, and prediction error per band. No look-ahead bias. Pure NumPy. Open math, gated numbers.
Years of history
40+
Drawdown bands
20
Look-ahead bias
None
Data sources
4
See the Dipsern grade, median returns, win rates, prediction accuracy, 8 interactive charts, historical price paths, and a plain-English verdict for TGT.
Dipsern is research and a second opinion — not a broker. You'd buy TGT at your own broker.
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Signal computed Jun 17, 2026 using default parameters (90-day return period, 20 segments, 0.95 decay). Data sourced from Yahoo Finance, Binance, CoinGecko, and Steam Market.