SPDW

How is SPDW doing right now?

In plain terms: SPDW is 0.2% below its highest-ever price. Dipsern checks every past time it was this far down and grades how the next 90 days usually went.

As of the latest market close, SPDR Portfolio Developed World ex-US ETF (SPDW) is trading at or near all-time highs, 0.2% below its all-time high at $51.55. When an asset is this close to highs, drawdown signals are mostly noise — the more useful question is whether the next 5-10% pullback will be bought aggressively.

What history says at this drawdown

Across all available history, SPDW has spent enough trading days in the 5%-to-0% drawdown band to build a large sample (1443 observations). Dipsern segments these by drawdown depth and computes the rolling median forward 90-day return — that median is the primary signal you see in the full app, and it's substantially more robust than mean-based forecasts because it ignores fat-tail outliers in both directions.

What this means for SPDW

ETFs aggregate constituent behavior, so their drawdowns tend to be shallower but more persistent than single stocks. The median forward return at a given drawdown level for an ETF is usually a more stable signal than for an individual equity. Use this snapshot to set expectations: this is where the asset is, not where it's likely to go. Drawdown-based signals only become high-conviction below shallow-pullback territory.