SOXX

How is SOXX doing right now?

In plain terms: SOXX is 17.1% below its highest-ever price. Dipsern checks every past time it was this far down and grades how the next 90 days usually went.

As of the latest market close, iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) is trading in a moderate correction, 17.1% below its all-time high at $543.27. Corrections in this band are common during macro repricings (rate scares, sector rotations, earnings shocks). The question is whether the cause is durable or transient.

What history says at this drawdown

SOXX reaches this drawdown band repeatedly in its history (601 observations), which is a large sample for the segmentation engine to compute a stable median forward return. The engine uses a rolling 90-day window and gives more weight to recent years — this lets the signal adapt to regime changes (e.g., post-COVID volatility) without losing the long-run base rate.

What this means for SOXX

ETFs aggregate constituent behavior, so their drawdowns tend to be shallower but more persistent than single stocks. The median forward return at a given drawdown level for an ETF is usually a more stable signal than for an individual equity. This is the band where most successful "buy the dip" strategies have historically operated. The median forward return here for SOXX is in the full app, alongside the segment-level win rate.