Super Micro Computer, Inc. · Technology
$29.22
-75.4%
Jun 17, 2026
D
WeakGraded against SMCI's own history at this drawdown — not the market's.
What it means: SMCI's own history does not strongly favor buying at this level yet.
What to do: Consider watching and waiting for a deeper dip or a higher grade.
Super Micro Computer, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, develops and sells server and storage solutions based on modular and open-standard architecture in the United States, Asia, Europe, and internationally. The company provides liquid and air-cooled AI servers for training and inferencing with integrated graphics processing units (GPUs) or PCIe based architectures; SuperBlade, MicroBlade, FlexTwin, GrandTwin, and BigTwin blade and multi-node systems; SuperStorage systems; Hyper, CloudDC, a
Three plain-English paragraphs — current state, historical base rate, and interpretation — so you walk away with context, not a dashboard.
In plain terms: SMCI is 75.4% below its highest-ever price. Dipsern checks every past time it was this far down and grades how the next 90 days usually went.
As of the latest market close, Supermicro (SMCI) is trading in a historic crash, 75.4% below its all-time high at $29.22. When an asset is this far below its peak, the binary becomes recovery vs. zero. Dipsern's segmentation answers the question with data, not narratives.
SMCI reaches this drawdown band repeatedly in its history (25 observations), which is a modest sample for the segmentation engine to compute a stable median forward return. The engine uses a rolling 90-day window and gives more weight to recent years — this lets the signal adapt to regime changes (e.g., post-COVID volatility) without losing the long-run base rate.
For US large-caps, drawdowns of 20-30% are typically driven by macro repricing (rates, earnings, sector rotation). Single-name 50%+ drawdowns are usually structural — the signal alone won't tell you which, but the segments table will show whether prior episodes recovered. In crash territory, the most informative number is the worst observed forward return — not the median. The full app shows the max-loss column for the current segment.
Five tickers closest to SMCI's distance from all-time high. Same category, one tap away.
Dipsern segments the full drawdown range into 20 equal-width bands. The table shows the number of confirmed historical observations in each band for SMCI. Median forward returns, win rates, and prediction errors are available in the full analysis.
We segment 40+ years of SMCI's price history into 20 equal-width drawdown bands and compute forward median returns, win rates, and prediction error per band. No look-ahead bias. Pure NumPy. Open math, gated numbers.
Years of history
40+
Drawdown bands
20
Look-ahead bias
None
Data sources
4
See the Dipsern grade, median returns, win rates, prediction accuracy, 8 interactive charts, historical price paths, and a plain-English verdict for SMCI.
Dipsern is research and a second opinion — not a broker. You'd buy SMCI at your own broker.
Analyze SMCI FreeNo credit card required · 5 free analyses per month
Signal computed Jun 17, 2026 using default parameters (90-day return period, 20 segments, 0.95 decay). Data sourced from Yahoo Finance, Binance, CoinGecko, and Steam Market.