iShares 0–1 Year Treasury Bond ETF
$110.23
-0.1%
Jun 17, 2026
D
WeakGraded against SHV's own history at this drawdown — not the market's.
What it means: SHV's own history does not strongly favor buying at this level yet.
What to do: Consider watching and waiting for a deeper dip or a higher grade.
The fund will invest at least 80% of its assets in the component securities of the underlying index, and it will invest at least 90% of its assets in U.S. Treasury securities that BFA believes will help the fund track the underlying index. The index measures the performance of public obligations of the U.S. Treasury that have a remaining maturity of less than or equal to one year.
Three plain-English paragraphs — current state, historical base rate, and interpretation — so you walk away with context, not a dashboard.
In plain terms: SHV is 0.1% below its highest-ever price. Dipsern checks every past time it was this far down and grades how the next 90 days usually went.
iShares Short Treasury Bond ETF (SHV) sits 0.1% off its peak and is currently at or near all-time highs, last printing at $110.23. That puts SHV in a momentum regime: buyers are in control and there's no meaningful technical damage on the chart yet.
History at this drawdown level is well-populated for SHV — 4826 confirmed observations in the 5%-to-0% band. The Dipsern engine uses these to compute a rolling median rather than a mean, because medians are robust to the kind of fat tails you find in etfs return distributions. The win rate (% of episodes that closed positive after 90 days) is shown in the segments table below.
For broad-index ETFs the historical base rate is exceptionally stable; for narrow thematic ETFs (e.g., ARKK, cannabis, leveraged), drawdowns are deeper and the sample size at each band is smaller. At this level the Dipsern signal is mostly tracking momentum, not mean reversion. Most buying-the-dip frameworks aren't relevant when there is no dip.
Five tickers closest to SHV's distance from all-time high. Same category, one tap away.
Dipsern segments the full drawdown range into 20 equal-width bands. The table shows the number of confirmed historical observations in each band for SHV. Median forward returns, win rates, and prediction errors are available in the full analysis.
We segment 40+ years of SHV's price history into 20 equal-width drawdown bands and compute forward median returns, win rates, and prediction error per band. No look-ahead bias. Pure NumPy. Open math, gated numbers.
Years of history
40+
Drawdown bands
20
Look-ahead bias
None
Data sources
4
See the Dipsern grade, median returns, win rates, prediction accuracy, 8 interactive charts, historical price paths, and a plain-English verdict for SHV.
Dipsern is research and a second opinion — not a broker. You'd buy SHV at your own broker.
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Signal computed Jun 17, 2026 using default parameters (90-day return period, 20 segments, 0.95 decay). Data sourced from Yahoo Finance, Binance, CoinGecko, and Steam Market.