SHOP

How is SHOP doing right now?

In plain terms: SHOP is 36.5% below its highest-ever price. Dipsern checks every past time it was this far down and grades how the next 90 days usually went.

Right now SHOP — Shopify Inc — is in a severe drawdown, down 36.5% from its record high. Last price: $158.49. Severe drawdowns separate structurally sound assets from the ones that don't recover. The historical data below shows what SHOP did after similar episodes.

What history says at this drawdown

History at this drawdown level is well-populated for SHOP — 53 confirmed observations in the 40%-to-35% band. The Dipsern engine uses these to compute a rolling median rather than a mean, because medians are robust to the kind of fat tails you find in canadian stocks return distributions. The win rate (% of episodes that closed positive after 90 days) is shown in the segments table below.

What this means for SHOP

Drawdown-based signals work across asset classes but the magnitude of meaningful moves varies. Dipsern computes the segmentation per-asset so the bands are calibrated to SHOP's own volatility history. At this depth, focus on prediction error and sample size before median return. A high historical median return at -40% means nothing if the prediction error was also 30%.