MELI

How is MELI doing right now?

In plain terms: MELI is 35.9% below its highest-ever price. Dipsern checks every past time it was this far down and grades how the next 90 days usually went.

MercadoLibre (MELI) sits 35.9% off its peak and is currently in a severe drawdown, last printing at $1,674.08. A 35-60% drawdown is the territory where most retail investors capitulate. It's also where the highest-probability historical entries have clustered for resilient assets.

What history says at this drawdown

Across all available history, MELI has spent enough trading days in the 40%-to-35% drawdown band to build a large sample (311 observations). Dipsern segments these by drawdown depth and computes the rolling median forward 90-day return — that median is the primary signal you see in the full app, and it's substantially more robust than mean-based forecasts because it ignores fat-tail outliers in both directions.

What this means for MELI

S&P 500 names behave differently from small-caps at the same drawdown level — the Dipsern segmentation is per-ticker, so historical base rates for MELI reflect its own volatility regime, not the market's. Severe drawdowns are where Dipsern's segmentation provides the most edge: ordinary base rates don't apply, but the asset's own history at this exact depth does. The forward-return distribution here is bimodal — either rapid recovery or continued decline.