State Street SPDR S&P 400 Mid Cap Growth ETF
$104.94
-7.7%
Sep 19, 2026
D
WeakGraded against MDYG's own history at this drawdown — not the market's.
What it means: MDYG's own history does not strongly favor buying at this level yet.
What to do: Consider watching and waiting for a deeper dip or a higher grade.
The fund generally invests substantially all, but at least 80%, of its total assets in the securities comprising the index. The index measures the performance of the mid-capitalization growth segment of the U.S. equity market.
Three plain-English paragraphs — current state, historical base rate, and interpretation — so you walk away with context, not a dashboard.
In plain terms: MDYG is 7.7% below its highest-ever price. Dipsern checks every past time it was this far down and grades how the next 90 days usually went.
SPDR S&P 400 Mid Cap Growth ETF (MDYG) sits 7.7% off its peak and is currently in a shallow pullback, last printing at $104.94. Shallow pullbacks like this are routine — historically ETFs assets revisit a 5-10% dip several times a year, and most resolve back to highs within weeks.
Across all available history, MDYG has spent enough trading days in the 10%-to-5% drawdown band to build a large sample (890 observations). Dipsern segments these by drawdown depth and computes the rolling median forward 90-day return — that median is the primary signal you see in the full app, and it's substantially more robust than mean-based forecasts because it ignores fat-tail outliers in both directions.
For broad-index ETFs the historical base rate is exceptionally stable; for narrow thematic ETFs (e.g., ARKK, cannabis, leveraged), drawdowns are deeper and the sample size at each band is smaller. Shallow pullbacks are where dip-buying frameworks start to pay off, but only marginally. The median forward return in shallow bands is usually positive but not dramatic.
Five tickers closest to MDYG's distance from all-time high. Same category, one tap away.
Dipsern segments the full drawdown range into 20 equal-width bands. The table shows the number of confirmed historical observations in each band for MDYG. Median forward returns, win rates, and prediction errors are available in the full analysis.
We segment 40+ years of MDYG's price history into 20 equal-width drawdown bands and compute forward median returns, win rates, and prediction error per band. No look-ahead bias. Pure NumPy. Open math, gated numbers.
Years of history
40+
Drawdown bands
20
Look-ahead bias
None
Data sources
4
See the Dipsern grade, median returns, win rates, prediction accuracy, 8 interactive charts, historical price paths, and a plain-English verdict for MDYG.
Dipsern is research and a second opinion — not a broker. You'd buy MDYG at your own broker.
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Signal computed Sep 19, 2026 using default parameters (90-day return period, 20 segments, 0.95 decay). Data sourced from Yahoo Finance, Binance, CoinGecko, and Steam Market.