IBIT

How is IBIT doing right now?

In plain terms: IBIT is 47.9% below its highest-ever price. Dipsern checks every past time it was this far down and grades how the next 90 days usually went.

As of the latest market close, iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) is trading in a severe drawdown, 47.9% below its all-time high at $37.17. Severe drawdowns separate structurally sound assets from the ones that don't recover. The historical data below shows what IBIT did after similar episodes.

What history says at this drawdown

IBIT reaches this drawdown band repeatedly in its history (17 observations), which is a modest sample for the segmentation engine to compute a stable median forward return. The engine uses a rolling 90-day window and gives more weight to recent years — this lets the signal adapt to regime changes (e.g., post-COVID volatility) without losing the long-run base rate.

What this means for IBIT

ETFs aggregate constituent behavior, so their drawdowns tend to be shallower but more persistent than single stocks. The median forward return at a given drawdown level for an ETF is usually a more stable signal than for an individual equity. At this depth, focus on prediction error and sample size before median return. A high historical median return at -40% means nothing if the prediction error was also 30%.