HWM

How is HWM doing right now?

In plain terms: HWM is 0% below its highest-ever price. Dipsern checks every past time it was this far down and grades how the next 90 days usually went.

Right now HWM — Howmet Aerospace — is at or near all-time highs, down 0.0% from its record high. Last price: $277.42. When an asset is this close to highs, drawdown signals are mostly noise — the more useful question is whether the next 5-10% pullback will be bought aggressively.

What history says at this drawdown

Across all available history, HWM has spent enough trading days in the 5%-to-0% drawdown band to build a large sample (932 observations). Dipsern segments these by drawdown depth and computes the rolling median forward 90-day return — that median is the primary signal you see in the full app, and it's substantially more robust than mean-based forecasts because it ignores fat-tail outliers in both directions.

What this means for HWM

For US large-caps, drawdowns of 20-30% are typically driven by macro repricing (rates, earnings, sector rotation). Single-name 50%+ drawdowns are usually structural — the signal alone won't tell you which, but the segments table will show whether prior episodes recovered. Use this snapshot to set expectations: this is where the asset is, not where it's likely to go. Drawdown-based signals only become high-conviction below shallow-pullback territory.