HWM

How is HWM doing right now?

In plain terms: HWM is 2.6% below its highest-ever price. Dipsern checks every past time it was this far down and grades how the next 90 days usually went.

Right now HWM — Howmet Aerospace — is in a shallow pullback, down 2.6% from its record high. Last price: $283.71. A move of this size is statistically unremarkable. It's the kind of pullback that bounces fast or extends into a deeper correction; the next leg is what matters.

What history says at this drawdown

Across all available history, HWM has spent enough trading days in the 5%-to-0% drawdown band to build a large sample (944 observations). Dipsern segments these by drawdown depth and computes the rolling median forward 90-day return — that median is the primary signal you see in the full app, and it's substantially more robust than mean-based forecasts because it ignores fat-tail outliers in both directions.

What this means for HWM

For US large-caps, drawdowns of 20-30% are typically driven by macro repricing (rates, earnings, sector rotation). Single-name 50%+ drawdowns are usually structural — the signal alone won't tell you which, but the segments table will show whether prior episodes recovered. This drawdown band tends to mean-revert quickly. The Dipsern win rate here is informative — if it's well above 50%, momentum traders treat these dips as buy-the-pullback setups.