HWM

How is HWM doing right now?

In plain terms: HWM is 21.5% below its highest-ever price. Dipsern checks every past time it was this far down and grades how the next 90 days usually went.

Right now HWM — Howmet Aerospace — is in a deep drawdown, down 21.5% from its record high. Last price: $229.67. Asset price action of this severity has historically marked attractive entry zones — but only when fundamentals weren't permanently impaired. The historical median return below quantifies that pattern for HWM specifically.

What history says at this drawdown

Across all available history, HWM has spent enough trading days in the 25%-to-20% drawdown band to build a meaningful sample (74 observations). Dipsern segments these by drawdown depth and computes the rolling median forward 90-day return — that median is the primary signal you see in the full app, and it's substantially more robust than mean-based forecasts because it ignores fat-tail outliers in both directions.

What this means for HWM

For US large-caps, drawdowns of 20-30% are typically driven by macro repricing (rates, earnings, sector rotation). Single-name 50%+ drawdowns are usually structural — the signal alone won't tell you which, but the segments table will show whether prior episodes recovered. Below 20% drawdowns the historical median forward return often becomes attractive — but with rising variance. The win-rate column in the segments table is more useful than the median at this depth.