Fidelity MSCI Real Estate Index ETF
$29.77
-1.1%
Jun 17, 2026
D
WeakGraded against FREL's own history at this drawdown — not the market's.
What it means: FREL's own history does not strongly favor buying at this level yet.
What to do: Consider watching and waiting for a deeper dip or a higher grade.
The fund invests at least 80% of assets in securities included in the fund's underlying index. The fund's underlying index is the MSCI USA IMI Real Estate 25/25 Index, which represents the performance of the real estate sector in the U.S. equity market. It may or may not hold all of the securities in the MSCI USA IMI Real Estate 25/25 Index.
Three plain-English paragraphs — current state, historical base rate, and interpretation — so you walk away with context, not a dashboard.
In plain terms: FREL is 1.1% below its highest-ever price. Dipsern checks every past time it was this far down and grades how the next 90 days usually went.
FREL (Fidelity MSCI Real Estate Index ETF) is 1.1% below its historical peak. Tape reads at or near all-time highs, with the last trade at $29.77. That puts FREL in a momentum regime: buyers are in control and there's no meaningful technical damage on the chart yet.
History at this drawdown level is well-populated for FREL — 1009 confirmed observations in the 5%-to-0% band. The Dipsern engine uses these to compute a rolling median rather than a mean, because medians are robust to the kind of fat tails you find in etfs return distributions. The win rate (% of episodes that closed positive after 90 days) is shown in the segments table below.
For broad-index ETFs the historical base rate is exceptionally stable; for narrow thematic ETFs (e.g., ARKK, cannabis, leveraged), drawdowns are deeper and the sample size at each band is smaller. At this level the Dipsern signal is mostly tracking momentum, not mean reversion. Most buying-the-dip frameworks aren't relevant when there is no dip.
Five tickers closest to FREL's distance from all-time high. Same category, one tap away.
Dipsern segments the full drawdown range into 20 equal-width bands. The table shows the number of confirmed historical observations in each band for FREL. Median forward returns, win rates, and prediction errors are available in the full analysis.
We segment 40+ years of FREL's price history into 20 equal-width drawdown bands and compute forward median returns, win rates, and prediction error per band. No look-ahead bias. Pure NumPy. Open math, gated numbers.
Years of history
40+
Drawdown bands
20
Look-ahead bias
None
Data sources
4
See the Dipsern grade, median returns, win rates, prediction accuracy, 8 interactive charts, historical price paths, and a plain-English verdict for FREL.
Dipsern is research and a second opinion — not a broker. You'd buy FREL at your own broker.
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Signal computed Jun 17, 2026 using default parameters (90-day return period, 20 segments, 0.95 decay). Data sourced from Yahoo Finance, Binance, CoinGecko, and Steam Market.