Australian Stocks signal
FMG

FMG

Fortescue Ltd · Basic Materials

Australian StocksOther Industrial Metals & MiningASXAUD-26.3% from ATH
Current Price

$18.36

Drawdown from ATH

-26.3%

Last Updated

Jul 5, 2026

Dipsern Grade90d

D

Weak

Graded against FMG's own history at this drawdown — not the market's.

What it means: FMG's own history does not strongly favor buying at this level yet.

What to do: Consider watching and waiting for a deeper dip or a higher grade.

Median 90-Day Return
Historical Win Rate
Last 30 days-5.85%
Jun 30Aug 10
About FMG

Fortescue Ltd

Fortescue Ltd engages in the exploration, development, production, processing, and sale of iron ore in Australia, China, and internationally. The company explores for copper and lithium deposits; and rare earth elements. It owns and operates rail and port facilities; and focuses on producing green energy and green hydrogen, including derivatives comprising green ammonia, as well as green technology development and manufacturing. The company was formerly known as Fortescue Metals Group Limited an

The reading

How Dipsern reads FMG right now.

Three plain-English paragraphs — current state, historical base rate, and interpretation — so you walk away with context, not a dashboard.

Snapshot

How is FMG doing right now?

In plain terms: FMG is 26.3% below its highest-ever price. Dipsern checks every past time it was this far down and grades how the next 90 days usually went.

As of the latest market close, Fortescue Ltd. (FMG) is trading in a deep drawdown, 26.3% below its all-time high at $18.36. Asset price action of this severity has historically marked attractive entry zones — but only when fundamentals weren't permanently impaired. The historical median return below quantifies that pattern for FMG specifically.

Historical base rate

What history says at this drawdown

Across all available history, FMG has spent enough trading days in the 30%-to-25% drawdown band to build a meaningful sample (192 observations). Dipsern segments these by drawdown depth and computes the rolling median forward 90-day return — that median is the primary signal you see in the full app, and it's substantially more robust than mean-based forecasts because it ignores fat-tail outliers in both directions.

Interpretation

What this means for FMG

Drawdown-based signals work across asset classes but the magnitude of meaningful moves varies. Dipsern computes the segmentation per-asset so the bands are calibrated to FMG's own volatility history. Below 20% drawdowns the historical median forward return often becomes attractive — but with rising variance. The win-rate column in the segments table is more useful than the median at this depth.

Comparable signals

Other Australian Stocks at similar drawdown levels

Five tickers closest to FMG's distance from all-time high. Same category, one tap away.

Orica Ltd.

-26.3% from ATH

Evolution Mining Ltd.

-26.6% from ATH

Genesis Minerals Ltd.

-25.3% from ATH

Santos Ltd.

-27.4% from ATH

Technology One Ltd.

-27.7% from ATH

Historical depth

Sample sizes by drawdown band

Dipsern segments the full drawdown range into 20 equal-width bands. The table shows the number of confirmed historical observations in each band for FMG. Median forward returns, win rates, and prediction errors are available in the full analysis.

Drawdown BandObservationsMedian ReturnWin Rate
-100% to -95%728
-95% to -90%1884
-90% to -85%693
-85% to -80%688
-80% to -75%283
-75% to -70%261
-70% to -65%392
-65% to -60%532
-60% to -55%414
-55% to -50%543
-50% to -45%297
-45% to -40%214
Methodology

Every grade is reproducible.

We segment 40+ years of FMG's price history into 20 equal-width drawdown bands and compute forward median returns, win rates, and prediction error per band. No look-ahead bias. Pure NumPy. Open math, gated numbers.

Years of history

40+

Drawdown bands

20

Look-ahead bias

None

Data sources

4

Unlock FMG's full analysis

See the Dipsern grade, median returns, win rates, prediction accuracy, 8 interactive charts, historical price paths, and a plain-English verdict for FMG.

Dipsern is research and a second opinion — not a broker. You'd buy FMG at your own broker.

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Signal computed Jul 5, 2026 using default parameters (90-day return period, 20 segments, 0.95 decay). Data sourced from Yahoo Finance, Binance, CoinGecko, and Steam Market.