Fidelity Total Bond ETF
$45.65
-1.3%
Jun 17, 2026
D
WeakGraded against FBND's own history at this drawdown — not the market's.
What it means: FBND's own history does not strongly favor buying at this level yet.
What to do: Consider watching and waiting for a deeper dip or a higher grade.
Normally, the fund invests at least 80% of assets in debt securities of all types and repurchase agreements for those securities. The manager uses the Bloomberg U.S. Universal Bond Index as a guide in allocating assets across the investment-grade, high yield, and emerging market asset classes. The fund invests up to 20% of assets in lower-quality debt securities. It is managed to have similar overall interest rate risk to the index.
Three plain-English paragraphs — current state, historical base rate, and interpretation — so you walk away with context, not a dashboard.
In plain terms: FBND is 1.3% below its highest-ever price. Dipsern checks every past time it was this far down and grades how the next 90 days usually went.
Right now FBND — Fidelity Total Bond ETF — is at or near all-time highs, down 1.3% from its record high. Last price: $45.65. When an asset is this close to highs, drawdown signals are mostly noise — the more useful question is whether the next 5-10% pullback will be bought aggressively.
History at this drawdown level is well-populated for FBND — 2220 confirmed observations in the 5%-to-0% band. The Dipsern engine uses these to compute a rolling median rather than a mean, because medians are robust to the kind of fat tails you find in etfs return distributions. The win rate (% of episodes that closed positive after 90 days) is shown in the segments table below.
ETFs aggregate constituent behavior, so their drawdowns tend to be shallower but more persistent than single stocks. The median forward return at a given drawdown level for an ETF is usually a more stable signal than for an individual equity. Use this snapshot to set expectations: this is where the asset is, not where it's likely to go. Drawdown-based signals only become high-conviction below shallow-pullback territory.
Five tickers closest to FBND's distance from all-time high. Same category, one tap away.
Dipsern segments the full drawdown range into 20 equal-width bands. The table shows the number of confirmed historical observations in each band for FBND. Median forward returns, win rates, and prediction errors are available in the full analysis.
We segment 40+ years of FBND's price history into 20 equal-width drawdown bands and compute forward median returns, win rates, and prediction error per band. No look-ahead bias. Pure NumPy. Open math, gated numbers.
Years of history
40+
Drawdown bands
20
Look-ahead bias
None
Data sources
4
See the Dipsern grade, median returns, win rates, prediction accuracy, 8 interactive charts, historical price paths, and a plain-English verdict for FBND.
Dipsern is research and a second opinion — not a broker. You'd buy FBND at your own broker.
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Signal computed Jun 17, 2026 using default parameters (90-day return period, 20 segments, 0.95 decay). Data sourced from Yahoo Finance, Binance, CoinGecko, and Steam Market.