DLTR

How is DLTR doing right now?

In plain terms: DLTR is 35.7% below its highest-ever price. Dipsern checks every past time it was this far down and grades how the next 90 days usually went.

Right now DLTR — Dollar Tree — is in a severe drawdown, down 35.7% from its record high. Last price: $111.96. Severe drawdowns separate structurally sound assets from the ones that don't recover. The historical data below shows what DLTR did after similar episodes.

What history says at this drawdown

Across all available history, DLTR has spent enough trading days in the 40%-to-35% drawdown band to build a large sample (411 observations). Dipsern segments these by drawdown depth and computes the rolling median forward 90-day return — that median is the primary signal you see in the full app, and it's substantially more robust than mean-based forecasts because it ignores fat-tail outliers in both directions.

What this means for DLTR

For US large-caps, drawdowns of 20-30% are typically driven by macro repricing (rates, earnings, sector rotation). Single-name 50%+ drawdowns are usually structural — the signal alone won't tell you which, but the segments table will show whether prior episodes recovered. At this depth, focus on prediction error and sample size before median return. A high historical median return at -40% means nothing if the prediction error was also 30%.