Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. · Consumer Cyclical
$32.61
-52.4%
Jun 17, 2026
D
WeakGraded against CMG's own history at this drawdown — not the market's.
What it means: CMG's own history does not strongly favor buying at this level yet.
What to do: Consider watching and waiting for a deeper dip or a higher grade.
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, owns and operates Chipotle Mexican Grill restaurants. It sells food and beverages, such as burritos, burrito bowls, quesadillas, tacos, and salads, as well as kids's meals, chips, and sides. It offers Mexican-inspired meals using responsibly sourced meats, such as chicken, beef, and pork branded as Responsibly Raised. The company also provides digital ordering through its website, mobile app, and third-party delivery platforms. It has
Three plain-English paragraphs — current state, historical base rate, and interpretation — so you walk away with context, not a dashboard.
In plain terms: CMG is 52.4% below its highest-ever price. Dipsern checks every past time it was this far down and grades how the next 90 days usually went.
Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) sits 52.4% off its peak and is currently in a severe drawdown, last printing at $32.61. A 35-60% drawdown is the territory where most retail investors capitulate. It's also where the highest-probability historical entries have clustered for resilient assets.
CMG reaches this drawdown band repeatedly in its history (105 observations), which is a meaningful sample for the segmentation engine to compute a stable median forward return. The engine uses a rolling 90-day window and gives more weight to recent years — this lets the signal adapt to regime changes (e.g., post-COVID volatility) without losing the long-run base rate.
S&P 500 names behave differently from small-caps at the same drawdown level — the Dipsern segmentation is per-ticker, so historical base rates for CMG reflect its own volatility regime, not the market's. Severe drawdowns are where Dipsern's segmentation provides the most edge: ordinary base rates don't apply, but the asset's own history at this exact depth does. The forward-return distribution here is bimodal — either rapid recovery or continued decline.
Five tickers closest to CMG's distance from all-time high. Same category, one tap away.
Dipsern segments the full drawdown range into 20 equal-width bands. The table shows the number of confirmed historical observations in each band for CMG. Median forward returns, win rates, and prediction errors are available in the full analysis.
We segment 40+ years of CMG's price history into 20 equal-width drawdown bands and compute forward median returns, win rates, and prediction error per band. No look-ahead bias. Pure NumPy. Open math, gated numbers.
Years of history
40+
Drawdown bands
20
Look-ahead bias
None
Data sources
4
See the Dipsern grade, median returns, win rates, prediction accuracy, 8 interactive charts, historical price paths, and a plain-English verdict for CMG.
Dipsern is research and a second opinion — not a broker. You'd buy CMG at your own broker.
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Signal computed Jun 17, 2026 using default parameters (90-day return period, 20 segments, 0.95 decay). Data sourced from Yahoo Finance, Binance, CoinGecko, and Steam Market.