CAT

How is CAT doing right now?

In plain terms: CAT is 20.8% below its highest-ever price. Dipsern checks every past time it was this far down and grades how the next 90 days usually went.

Right now CAT — Caterpillar Inc. — is in a deep drawdown, down 20.8% from its record high. Last price: $842.19. Asset price action of this severity has historically marked attractive entry zones — but only when fundamentals weren't permanently impaired. The historical median return below quantifies that pattern for CAT specifically.

What history says at this drawdown

CAT reaches this drawdown band repeatedly in its history (1847 observations), which is a large sample for the segmentation engine to compute a stable median forward return. The engine uses a rolling 90-day window and gives more weight to recent years — this lets the signal adapt to regime changes (e.g., post-COVID volatility) without losing the long-run base rate.

What this means for CAT

For US large-caps, drawdowns of 20-30% are typically driven by macro repricing (rates, earnings, sector rotation). Single-name 50%+ drawdowns are usually structural — the signal alone won't tell you which, but the segments table will show whether prior episodes recovered. Below 20% drawdowns the historical median forward return often becomes attractive — but with rising variance. The win-rate column in the segments table is more useful than the median at this depth.