AvalonBay Communities, Inc. · Real Estate
$68.14
-69.7%
Sep 18, 2026
B
SolidGraded against AVB's own history at this drawdown — not the market's.
What it means: A solid but not standout setup based on AVB's own past dips at this level.
What to do: Fine for dollar-cost-averaging; a deeper dip has historically graded higher.
AvalonBay Communities, Inc., a member of the S&P 500, is an equity REIT. The firm develops, redevelops, acquires and manages communities in leading metropolitan areas in New England, the New York/New Jersey Metro area, the Mid-Atlantic, the Pacific Northwest, and Northern and Southern California, as well as in the Company's expansion regions of Raleigh-Durham and Charlotte, North Carolina, Southeast Florida, Dallas and Austin, Texas, and Denver, Colorado. As of December 31, 2025, the Company own
Three plain-English paragraphs — current state, historical base rate, and interpretation — so you walk away with context, not a dashboard.
In plain terms: AVB is 69.7% below its highest-ever price. Dipsern checks every past time it was this far down and grades how the next 90 days usually went.
AvalonBay Communities (AVB) sits 69.7% off its peak and is currently in a historic crash, last printing at $68.14. Historic crashes (60%+ drawdowns) are rare events. For some assets they marked generational entries; for others they were warning signs of permanent capital loss.
History at this drawdown level is well-populated for AVB — 21 confirmed observations in the 70%-to-65% band. The Dipsern engine uses these to compute a rolling median rather than a mean, because medians are robust to the kind of fat tails you find in us stocks return distributions. The win rate (% of episodes that closed positive after 90 days) is shown in the segments table below.
S&P 500 names behave differently from small-caps at the same drawdown level — the Dipsern segmentation is per-ticker, so historical base rates for AVB reflect its own volatility regime, not the market's. Crash-level drawdowns are tail events with few historical analogs. The signal should be read as "here's what happened the last few times" rather than a base-rate forecast.
Five tickers closest to AVB's distance from all-time high. Same category, one tap away.
Dipsern segments the full drawdown range into 20 equal-width bands. The table shows the number of confirmed historical observations in each band for AVB. Median forward returns, win rates, and prediction errors are available in the full analysis.
We segment 40+ years of AVB's price history into 20 equal-width drawdown bands and compute forward median returns, win rates, and prediction error per band. No look-ahead bias. Pure NumPy. Open math, gated numbers.
Years of history
40+
Drawdown bands
20
Look-ahead bias
None
Data sources
4
See the Dipsern grade, median returns, win rates, prediction accuracy, 8 interactive charts, historical price paths, and a plain-English verdict for AVB.
Dipsern is research and a second opinion — not a broker. You'd buy AVB at your own broker.
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Signal computed Sep 18, 2026 using default parameters (90-day return period, 20 segments, 0.95 decay). Data sourced from Yahoo Finance, Binance, CoinGecko, and Steam Market.