APA

How is APA doing right now?

In plain terms: APA is 57.4% below its highest-ever price. Dipsern checks every past time it was this far down and grades how the next 90 days usually went.

Right now APA — APA Corporation — is in a severe drawdown, down 57.4% from its record high. Last price: $44.87. Severe drawdowns separate structurally sound assets from the ones that don't recover. The historical data below shows what APA did after similar episodes.

What history says at this drawdown

History at this drawdown level is well-populated for APA — 729 confirmed observations in the 60%-to-55% band. The Dipsern engine uses these to compute a rolling median rather than a mean, because medians are robust to the kind of fat tails you find in us stocks return distributions. The win rate (% of episodes that closed positive after 90 days) is shown in the segments table below.

What this means for APA

For US large-caps, drawdowns of 20-30% are typically driven by macro repricing (rates, earnings, sector rotation). Single-name 50%+ drawdowns are usually structural — the signal alone won't tell you which, but the segments table will show whether prior episodes recovered. At this depth, focus on prediction error and sample size before median return. A high historical median return at -40% means nothing if the prediction error was also 30%.