iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF
$98.97
-2.0%
Jun 17, 2026
D
WeakGraded against AGG's own history at this drawdown — not the market's.
What it means: AGG's own history does not strongly favor buying at this level yet.
What to do: Consider watching and waiting for a deeper dip or a higher grade.
The index measures the performance of the total U.S. investment-grade bond market. The fund will invest at least 80% of its assets in the component securities of the underlying index and TBAs that have economic characteristics that are substantially identical to the economic characteristics of the component securities of the underlying index, and the fund will invest at least 90% of its assets in fixed income securities of the types included in the underlying index that the advisor believes will
Three plain-English paragraphs — current state, historical base rate, and interpretation — so you walk away with context, not a dashboard.
In plain terms: AGG is 2% below its highest-ever price. Dipsern checks every past time it was this far down and grades how the next 90 days usually went.
iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF (AGG) sits 2.0% off its peak and is currently in a shallow pullback, last printing at $98.97. Shallow pullbacks like this are routine — historically ETFs assets revisit a 5-10% dip several times a year, and most resolve back to highs within weeks.
AGG reaches this drawdown band repeatedly in its history (4757 observations), which is a large sample for the segmentation engine to compute a stable median forward return. The engine uses a rolling 90-day window and gives more weight to recent years — this lets the signal adapt to regime changes (e.g., post-COVID volatility) without losing the long-run base rate.
For broad-index ETFs the historical base rate is exceptionally stable; for narrow thematic ETFs (e.g., ARKK, cannabis, leveraged), drawdowns are deeper and the sample size at each band is smaller. Shallow pullbacks are where dip-buying frameworks start to pay off, but only marginally. The median forward return in shallow bands is usually positive but not dramatic.
Five tickers closest to AGG's distance from all-time high. Same category, one tap away.
Dipsern segments the full drawdown range into 20 equal-width bands. The table shows the number of confirmed historical observations in each band for AGG. Median forward returns, win rates, and prediction errors are available in the full analysis.
We segment 40+ years of AGG's price history into 20 equal-width drawdown bands and compute forward median returns, win rates, and prediction error per band. No look-ahead bias. Pure NumPy. Open math, gated numbers.
Years of history
40+
Drawdown bands
20
Look-ahead bias
None
Data sources
4
See the Dipsern grade, median returns, win rates, prediction accuracy, 8 interactive charts, historical price paths, and a plain-English verdict for AGG.
Dipsern is research and a second opinion — not a broker. You'd buy AGG at your own broker.
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Signal computed Jun 17, 2026 using default parameters (90-day return period, 20 segments, 0.95 decay). Data sourced from Yahoo Finance, Binance, CoinGecko, and Steam Market.