Arch Capital Group Ltd. · Financial Services
$98.48
-9.8%
Aug 10, 2026
C
MarginalGraded against ACGL's own history at this drawdown — not the market's.
What it means: ACGL's own history does not strongly favor buying at this level yet.
What to do: Consider watching and waiting for a deeper dip or a higher grade.
Arch Capital Group Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, provides insurance, reinsurance, and mortgage insurance products in the United States, Canada, Bermuda, the United Kingdom, Europe, and Australia. The company operates through three segments: Insurance, Reinsurance, and Mortgage. The Insurance segment offers commercial automobile; commercial multiperil; financial and professional line liability; admitted, excess, and surplus casualty lines; property and short-tail specialty; workers compen
Three plain-English paragraphs — current state, historical base rate, and interpretation — so you walk away with context, not a dashboard.
In plain terms: ACGL is 9.8% below its highest-ever price. Dipsern checks every past time it was this far down and grades how the next 90 days usually went.
ACGL (Arch Capital Group) is 9.8% below its historical peak. Tape reads in a shallow pullback, with the last trade at $98.48. Shallow pullbacks like this are routine — historically US Stocks assets revisit a 5-10% dip several times a year, and most resolve back to highs within weeks.
History at this drawdown level is well-populated for ACGL — 1510 confirmed observations in the 10%-to-5% band. The Dipsern engine uses these to compute a rolling median rather than a mean, because medians are robust to the kind of fat tails you find in us stocks return distributions. The win rate (% of episodes that closed positive after 90 days) is shown in the segments table below.
S&P 500 names behave differently from small-caps at the same drawdown level — the Dipsern segmentation is per-ticker, so historical base rates for ACGL reflect its own volatility regime, not the market's. Shallow pullbacks are where dip-buying frameworks start to pay off, but only marginally. The median forward return in shallow bands is usually positive but not dramatic.
Five tickers closest to ACGL's distance from all-time high. Same category, one tap away.
Dipsern segments the full drawdown range into 20 equal-width bands. The table shows the number of confirmed historical observations in each band for ACGL. Median forward returns, win rates, and prediction errors are available in the full analysis.
We segment 40+ years of ACGL's price history into 20 equal-width drawdown bands and compute forward median returns, win rates, and prediction error per band. No look-ahead bias. Pure NumPy. Open math, gated numbers.
Years of history
40+
Drawdown bands
20
Look-ahead bias
None
Data sources
4
See the Dipsern grade, median returns, win rates, prediction accuracy, 8 interactive charts, historical price paths, and a plain-English verdict for ACGL.
Dipsern is research and a second opinion — not a broker. You'd buy ACGL at your own broker.
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Signal computed Aug 10, 2026 using default parameters (90-day return period, 20 segments, 0.95 decay). Data sourced from Yahoo Finance, Binance, CoinGecko, and Steam Market.