Nongfu Spring Co., Ltd. · Consumer Defensive
$38.60
-35.8%
Sep 19, 2026
C
MarginalGraded against 9633's own history at this drawdown — not the market's.
What it means: 9633's own history does not strongly favor buying at this level yet.
What to do: Consider watching and waiting for a deeper dip or a higher grade.
Nongfu Spring Co., Ltd. produces and sells packaged drinking water and beverage products primarily in Mainland China. It operates through five segments: Water Products, Ready-To-Drink Tea Products, Functional Drinks Products, Juice Beverage Products, and Other Products. The company also offers ready-to-drink tea beverages; functional drink products; fruit juice products; and other products, including beverage products, soda water, sparkling flavored, lemon juice, coffee beverages, and plant-base
Three plain-English paragraphs — current state, historical base rate, and interpretation — so you walk away with context, not a dashboard.
In plain terms: 9633 is 35.8% below its highest-ever price. Dipsern checks every past time it was this far down and grades how the next 90 days usually went.
Nongfu Spring (9633) sits 35.8% off its peak and is currently in a severe drawdown, last printing at $38.6. A 35-60% drawdown is the territory where most retail investors capitulate. It's also where the highest-probability historical entries have clustered for resilient assets.
History at this drawdown level is well-populated for 9633 — 238 confirmed observations in the 40%-to-35% band. The Dipsern engine uses these to compute a rolling median rather than a mean, because medians are robust to the kind of fat tails you find in hk/china stocks return distributions. The win rate (% of episodes that closed positive after 90 days) is shown in the segments table below.
Drawdown-based signals work across asset classes but the magnitude of meaningful moves varies. Dipsern computes the segmentation per-asset so the bands are calibrated to 9633's own volatility history. Severe drawdowns are where Dipsern's segmentation provides the most edge: ordinary base rates don't apply, but the asset's own history at this exact depth does. The forward-return distribution here is bimodal — either rapid recovery or continued decline.
Five tickers closest to 9633's distance from all-time high. Same category, one tap away.
Dipsern segments the full drawdown range into 20 equal-width bands. The table shows the number of confirmed historical observations in each band for 9633. Median forward returns, win rates, and prediction errors are available in the full analysis.
We segment 40+ years of 9633's price history into 20 equal-width drawdown bands and compute forward median returns, win rates, and prediction error per band. No look-ahead bias. Pure NumPy. Open math, gated numbers.
Years of history
40+
Drawdown bands
20
Look-ahead bias
None
Data sources
4
See the Dipsern grade, median returns, win rates, prediction accuracy, 8 interactive charts, historical price paths, and a plain-English verdict for 9633.
Dipsern is research and a second opinion — not a broker. You'd buy 9633 at your own broker.
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Signal computed Sep 19, 2026 using default parameters (90-day return period, 20 segments, 0.95 decay). Data sourced from Yahoo Finance, Binance, CoinGecko, and Steam Market.